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Tag: Serhii Plokhy

  • Democracies in time

    Democracies in time

    The Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (abbreviated SVR) seems busy spreading a narrative of Russian invincibility and inevitable Ukrainian defeat. Recently it was visible in one of Sweden’s largest newspapers, where American “experts” asserted Ukraine needs to negotiate immediately. In August CNN claimed The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (abbreviated FSB) was attempting influencing Westerners “through layers of ostensibly independent actors.” A known Swedish blogger accused Svenska Dagbladet for actively spreading this narrative by interviewing an “independent” American “expert”. Anders Åslund disproves the obvious faulty arguments put forward by these kinds of “experts”. Josh Rogin from the Washington Post also wrote a good opinion piece on this very issue. Finish authorities have revealed that Russian intelligence services have been active in foiling Sweden joining NATO. Who could’ve thought?

    In an interview with The Kyiv Independent, Serhii Plokhy argues that we need to brace and prepare for a long war. The coming year might be pivotal and he argues, correctly I think, that short-term memory is dangerous, tending to dominate among political elites. Personally I believe regular people oftentimes see life through a short-term memeory version too. The latest inflation rate or cost of cucumber in the store seems more damaging to the world, and the self, than a long, brutal war.

    Francis Farrelly of the same newspaper wrote an op-ed on the possibility of Ukrainian defeat. It is, to say the least, very critical of the West, and its willingness to really support Ukraine in terms of weapons, ammunition and weapon systems. Overall, I agree, although I think the Biden administration has done a marvelous job all-in-all and definitely compared to if Trump had been president, and compared to the European Union. Without the Biden administration, for all its’ faults, Ukraine would’ve fought a partisan war. The countries supporting Ukraine have the most resources on the planet. Russia has survived this far into the war because of the Soviet stockpiles, because economically, and we hear lots about how Russia has withstood economic pressure better then expected and how much stronger Russia is compared to Ukraine (from certain Western “experts” for instance), Russia has a GDP in comparison to New York state or Canada. So, approximately 150 million Russians produce as much as 20 million New Yorkers or 37 million Canadians. What do we have to fear?

    It makes me wonder if the authoritarians have a better perspective on time than democrats and inhabitants in democratic societies? Of course Putler embarrassed himself so much he couldn’t even show up riding that three-wheeled motorbike (he can’t ride an ordinary motorbike) when he realized his troops were initially pulverized by the Ukrainians. But he also knows how to gamble in the casino of International Politics and Suchlike Affairs. So, he and his men tried all they could to prolong the war in order to outweigh the losses and eventually defeat the West by beating Ukraine on the battlefield or by waiting for the short-term-memory-people in the West to think, and shrug as if it didn’t matter: “nah, not worth it anymore”.

    Johann Hari, among others, has written about our Stolen Focus, our inability to think properly because our attention span is so splintered and the gratification system is constantly set to “On”. For instance, the Swedish economy isn’t feeling too well, but the smallest evidence of a turn, like lessened increase of inflation, means that things are already turning. But an economic crisis isn’t averted by one small improvement, since the crisis itself is built up during decades. If Ukraine can’t “win” on the battlefield once, everything’s lost and we’re prepared to back our bags and go home.

    If democracies and their inhabitants can’t see over the next hill, democracy as a concept is dead. The war between Ukraine and Russia is costly in many ways – that’s war. After all the promises of support for Ukraine, all the “Slava Ukraini” uttered by prime ministers and presidents, we simply can’t surrender for an enemy which seems stronger than initially thought or because a war continues longer than people anticipated. Why wouldn’t it last for years? Swift victories seem fictitious or cineastic. Victories require time, willingess, sacrifice, logistics, money and people.

    Franz-Stefan Gady wrote about the movie Napoleon in Foreign Policy. Firstly, he mentioned the Western thought of “one major, decisive battle” which will lead to absolute and definite victory. Secondly, he writes (and has written before) about teh belief in a game-changing weapon, or a weapon system so strong it’ll lead to victory. None of these two things exist. Nuclear weapons, you say? Yes, they have delayed Western support for Ukraine, but have definitely not lead to some magical victory for the Russian forces.

    An ex-commander in the US military claimed that the People’s Liberation Army (the military of the Chinese Communist Party, not the military of the state) is preparing to invade Taiwan in 2027 at the latest. Even if this is his words, the Chinese and American leaderships are well aware of the risk of war over Taiwan, attempting to defuse the tension. It might not, hopefully, come to pass, although it’s a reminder of the tangible risk of a confrontation between two superpowers, one democratic, one authoritarian, both wanting to shape the world.

    According to a report from a German think-thank, Russia could rather quickly rearm and reconstitute in order to continue aggressions. The current Russian leadership, and many rightwing extremists perceives several states (like the three Baltic states) surrounding Russia as rightfully belonging to the Russian Federation, as former parts of the Russian Empire. The claim of renewed/expanded aggression has been made by the Swedish military and military analysts since the fullscale war on Ukraine.

    Russia has also transformed itself, again, into a full-fledged dictatorship, bent on territorial and influential expansion. Belarus is already virtually annexed. Russia won’t bend because Ukraine negotiates. They won’t bend because NATO or the EU withdraws or abandons Ukraine.

    We can’t be as naïve as Neville Chamberlain and his cohorts and accept dictators and authoritarian states to remain calm and peaceful. Unfortunately, Theodore Roosevelt was right when he wrote you should speak softly and carry a big stick, and that a good navy (here military) is not a provocation to war, it is the surest guaranty of peace. Russia must loose on the battlefield. No one should even consided abandoning Ukraine. You stand by your promise, by your friends.

  • Book review: The Russo-Ukrainian War

    Book review: The Russo-Ukrainian War

    I’ve reviewed The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine before – a completely outstanding book about Ukraine, author being historian Serhii Plokhy. This is the second book of him I review, a very contemporary, and initially, personal account of The Russo-Ukrainian War, beginning a few days prior to the full-scale invasion and war.

    I truly appreciate Plokhy introducing the reader to a very brief and coherent history of Ukraine, before continuing to the actual war itself. Initially, Plokhy gives us a personal account of the very beginning of the full-scale war initiated by Russia on the 24th of Februari 2022. As a reader, I can feel his anxiety and connection to the nation assaulted by a larger, dangerous and ruthless neighbour.

    Plokhy provides us with Ukrainian and Russian sources, and therefore accounts of what Vladimir Putin actually did say, or might have said, on certain occasions, which puts things into perspective. The infamous televised meetings, publications, and public speeches and debates are briefly mentioned here, giving us a precious insight into the Russian debate on which nations are perceived to belong to the Russian nation (or empire, if you will): Belarus, Kazakstan, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldavia. Perhaps Armenia and Azerbaijan. This facilitates, for instance, the comprehension of recent Russian threats and discourse on armed nuclear attacks on European capitals.

    The book provides historical insights, and retrospect accounts of Ukraine’s position in the Soviet Union, the aftermath of the Cold War and the beginning of the 2000’s, with the Orange Revolution, EuroMaidan and first invasion of 2014-2015 at its focus. All this, puts the war into a context and provides the reader with a coherent comprehension of what has happened prior to the war beginning last war and why Ukraine is attacked by Russia.
    In between, Plokhy depicts the invasion, the initial Ukrainian reaction, the responses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and president Volodomyr Zelensky, and the population. Then, the Russian onslaught on Kiev, Butja, Charkiv and Mariupol take centrepiece.

    The relationship between China and USA are later discussed, and this is one of the best parts of the book. I’ve spent an entire semester studying China and have read a lot about US history, presidents and political system, and might claim I’ve got a fairly good perception of what’s happening in the Pacific Ocean, as well as between the countries. Plokhy’s account of the tension, but also dynamo, between these two titans is very relevant to this war, China being able to use Russia for its own purposes, while being an uncomfortably ally, and the US taking a fierce stance against Russia, while not wanting to completely antagonising its perceived and dedicated main rival.

    Plokhy can, in other words, really put things into perspective, and for this I’m grateful. Considering the stress and time-pressure this book was written, it’s impressive.

    Three downsides of the book from a needy reader

    There’s several maps in the introduction to the book. The absence of maps in the chapters is one downside, since a lack of visual, detailed maps next to the text turns the reading experience into a constant page-turning event, if one is prone to check the whereabouts of an event. This becomes almost a confusing experience during the chapter explaining the Ukrainian offensives towards Cherson and near Charkiv. Is the town of Izium in Cherson oblast, or in or close to Charkiv oblast? Is Mykolaiv close to Cherson or Charkiv? If you’re familiar with the maps from the Institute for the Study of War you might know, but if not, you’re usually lost.

    Another downside is the assertive focus on the Ukrainian side. Don’t get me wrong, I strongly support Ukraine and want them with borders restored to pre-2014 and the dignity of the nation-state of Ukraine restored. I want the civilians to be able to live their lives without Russian interference. And I want peace for Ukraine, on their own terms.
    However, that doesn’t mean the book should focus so much on Russia’s losses and troubles on the front. I’ve listened to, and read texts, Ukrainian troops describing how they loose people in trenches and foxholes, for instance last summer during heavy and intense Russian artillery fire, or soldiers entering a forest and losing approximately 75 % of the soldiers in a very short time. Reading the book you wrongly get the picture of only Russia suffering heavy losses, which has been far from the case. Unfortunately.

    Thirdly, I’d include the lack of gender perspective, but this is only because I’m a very needy reader. Plokhy is a very (I need to stress very) competent writer and historian. But during this war I really feel the absence of gender perspective. This winter Lisa Bjurwald released Slava Ukraini! Womens resistance to Russia’s War. It deals with women’s resistance against Russia, the systemic repression, rapes and violations against women perpetrated by Russia’s armed forces, the Ukrainian women’s part of the armed forces, civilian and volunteer forces and importance for the nation of Ukraine. It’s bleak and very dark on the one hand, but also positive, good and hopeful. This recognition of specifically women is hard to come by in wars, although I also lack, generally, the real understanding and insights of men being sacrificed by superiors on the fron.
    All in all
    So far, this might be the only book that compresses the first year of the war in a reliable and proper way.

  • Ukraine: The Gates of Europe and Bloodlands

    Ukraine: The Gates of Europe and Bloodlands

    Despite my interest in history I’ve never read about the history of Ukraine. Through the years I’ve read some about the Czech Republic and the Soviet Union, but that’s basically all regarding what’s considered Eastern Europe. To overlook the eastern parts of Europe is a common trait in westerners (just like our tendency to count the Czech Republic to the “East” when it’s right in the middle of Europe (if you exclude parts of Russia)).

    The Gates of Europe

    Due to the war between Russia and Ukraine one book especially popped up as an excellent recommendation and choice for learning more about Ukraine as a part of the world: The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine by Serhii Plokhy, professor of Ukrainian history at Harvard University.

    The story begins a very long time ago and stops right after a certain comedian had become president of a beleagured nation pressed by the most powerful president of the world in a notorious telephone conversation.

    Throughout the centuries, Ukraine has been divided into the Left bank and the Right bank of the Dniepr river. Look at a map and think you are sailing downstreams towards the Black Sea: The Left is to the east of that river, whereas the Right is to the west. Lviv, once a city in Poland, in thus on the right side of the Dniepr (west then), whereas Charkiv is on the left (east then). This is a very important fact about this complex land.

    Plokhy takes you back to the Scythians, the Slavs, the Greeks, the Khazars, and the Byzantines, the founding and the special relations of the Orthodox church here, the Vikings, the Tatars, the Mongols, the Muscovites, the Swedes, the Poles, the Latvians, the Austrians, the Germans… the list of people coming here seems endless. It’s obvious and apparent how often Ukraine has been ravaged by other countries, the people there threatened by other people. Millions upon millions killed by invaders mostly. And just recently have they received a complicated independence, once again threatened by Russia. The latest version of the book was revised just after the impeachment of Donald Trump for blackmailing Vladimir Zelensky about evidence against Joe Biden’s son. It really puts into perspective what’s it like being in Sweden: on the outskirts of the world.

    Two very crucial facts he gives the reader is i) the discourse on the Rus (once a Scandinavian word probably meaning men who row), the Ruthenianand the derivation of “the Little Russians”; and ii) how Russia came to be more autocratic, more nationalist, more traditionally Orthodox, whereas Ukraine more leans towards Europe, has a more pro-democratic legacy and has had a special church, the Uniate church.

    If you’re interested to learn more about the most talked about nation on the planet and willing to learn more about people like Putin’s thoughts, feelings and ambitions – read this book.

    Bloodlands

    Roughly ten years ago another book was published, mainly focused on the fight over Ukraine, Belarus and Poland between 1933-1945: Bloodlands by Timothy Snyder, professor of history at Yale University and specialized on Ukraine. Josef Stalin had managed to remove competitors and ruled the USSR with an iron fist, implementing cruel policy after cruel policy. Then came Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany which didn’t even bother to abduct and murder people in the cover of darkness.

    This is a very tough book to read. Not linguistically, not due to uninteresting content. Contentwise, it’s extremely bleak, it reaks of blood, murder, genocide, and a complete and utter negligence of and contempt for human life. I’ve read about plenty of genocides before, but reading this book made me almost depressed and sick. Page after page is filled with death.

    Neither Stalin nor Hitler had any qualms whatsoever about letting millions of people die theoretically, through plans, and later physically through agents. They could simply not be wrong or wronged, so people had to die to prove these leaders right every single time.

    The story is set in the so called bloodlands, fertile, productive and beautiful, of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine, a very special place for the Russians and Slavs (as mentioned earlier) and to the Nazis. This is where dreams converged.

    Snyder lets people speak through (mainly) their letters and notes, many which were written in desperation and in very bad situations. It’s difficult to remain untouched by many of them, especially written by children awaiting death.

    To me, it’s obvious the Germans for many decades deluded themselves when claiming that Wehrmacht (the regular army) were never really involved in mass murder or killings. Not even a blind or deaf German soldier could have missed being a part of a war machine so systematically killing millions of civilians, prisoners of war and soldiers. Even asserting that Wehrmacht was somehow “clean” and not to blame seems, in hindsight, completely crazy. Naturally parts of Wehrmacht knew exactly what they were doing in Eastern Europe for years.

    Somehow impressively frightening (I do not find any better combination of words) is the NKVD’s ability to adjust to the circumstances and continue to kill anyone who seemed like a collaborator or traitor when the Nazis seized lands. NKVD remained organized in many places and managed to kill Nazis and civilians on all sides, no matter how hard the Nazis tried to uproot and kill them. That’s how deeply entrenched and vital NKVD were to the Soviet system.

    The craziness gets even deeper and worse when allegiances shift weekly or monthly. A hamlet did away with Jews under German occupation. One month later the Communists returned and cleansed the village from people who helped the Germans. One year later the Germans returned and annihilated all those who seemed linked to the NKVD. Another example is how some of the most oppressive and murderous guards in German concentration and extermination camps were Ukrainians, and some of the (unwilling) collaborators inside the camps were Jews. Religious roots, ethnic roots, family roots all matter in such a complicated way that it makes the civil war in former Yugoslavia seem like a walk in the park in comparison.

    The lands were flooded with human blood.

    However bleak the book may be, despite all the death and blood, at least parts of this book are necessary to understand important history is to people, how history affects people long after certain events have happened.

    It’s also a reminder of how wonderful democracy can be, no matter how flawed it can be and how utterly horrid the alternatives are.