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Tag: China

  • The American Wolf Warriors

    During the reign of Xi Jinping Chinese diplomacy, the dominant approach to other countries, with the exception of Russia, has been to call forth the Wolf Warriors. In just a matter of a few years, China went from a rather respected cooperative partner in countries like Sweden, for instance in creating Confucius Institutes and exchange programmes in the Academy, to being an enemy. Not an opponent or adversary, but a foe.

    As in France, the Chinese ambassador to Sweden, was seen as rude and unreasonable. Calls for his expulsion came from the right, the center and the left. In the Czech Republic, Chinese merchants were exposed exporting face masks and other medical equipment during the early phases of Covid pandemic, to selling (or was it donating?) them to the Czech Republic, calling it aid.

    In Southeast Asia, China has turned all other states into enemies, with their frequent harassment of fishers, border patrols and building military bases on reefs near or in other states. States turned to the United States of America to shield them. President Joe Biden iterated and reiterated his military protection of Taiwan. He talked to, and with, other states, let them front important political decisions.

    But now, the Trump administration has become the new Wolf Warriors, demeaning, slandering and threatening states: Ukraine, Russia, Denmark, Germany, Panama, Palestine. And the European Union. Trump and his lackey Ass Vance seem not to have learned anything from the Chinese way of diplomacy: you gain virtually no friends or allies. States shun you and realise they must cooperate more without you. How can you expect to gain friends by bullying, threatening and belittling people? Even the Russian regime understands this.

  • Book review: Chip war

    Book review: Chip war

    Once every couple of years (or months) you come across a topic you’ve never really been interested in, or perhaps haven’t even heard of. Or it’s a topic in the back of your head, that you’ve never been able to verbalize properly before. Suddenly it falls within scope and it is the only thing your mind is focused on for some time. After listening to The Ezra Klein Show with Chris Miller about his book Chip war, this has been the case for me. (Dmitri Alperovitch also talks to Miller on the Geopolitics Decanted podcast.)

    Semiconductors, you ask? Vaguely, you’ve heard of compontents crucial to technological infrastructure. Or phones, perhaps? You are right. Semiconductors are omnipresent in a technological society: phones, cars, computers, tablets, certain bins (!), satellites, dishwashers, speakers, washing machines, code locks, medical equipment – you name it. Since the 1950’s they’ve taken over society as a whole and most countries wouldn’t function properly without them. Semiconductors are in many ways the equivalent to oil – without it, no society. Chris Miller tells the story of how semiconductors were created, why they were created, and how they are used.

    Really, this is one of the best history books I ever read. And it’s not only about history, it’s not like your usual history book (I love history books)! It contains quite technical details of how semiconductors are constructed, and although it’s far from detailed (because it cannot be), it’s so intruiging and exciting I don’t want to lay down this book. I want it to continue endlessly. There are many aspects of the tech industry and the technological world I simply wish could disappear, so many dismal, awful and depressing aspects that haunt us and seem to increase each year. Read Ron Deibert’s Reset to get the state of the world. Generally, I have no high hopes for the future. In ways I do not really comprehend though, this books inspires hope. Perhaps it’s the implications of this specific piece of equipment, or the creation of the technology, or the suitable use and functions that allure to me.

    I cannot stop being impressed, even though I’m aware of the environmental and climate implications, of machines, that produce photolitography, comprised of almost 460.000 components, taking almost 20 years to develop, shooting objects through vacuum approximately 50.000 times each second. How can I not be impressed by the sheer (awesome) ingenuity to create a software program keeping track of every single component in one of the these machines, for it not to stall production? How do you track that many components? Of course I cannot be so impressed I lack the ability to review, but the storytelling and the technical details are impressive.

    History of semiconductors and Moore’s law

    The semiconductor itself stems from the US. Then it, generally, moved eastwards (BTW, a very cute game) to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the two latter the present superpowers in advanced semiconductors. See, there’s a difference between semiconductors and advanced semiconductors. The latter being inserted into machines general, while the later is used in more advanced machines or weapons.

    Most likely, you’ve heard of Moore´s law, based on the probablistic relationship between scientific progress and production, uttered by Gordon Moore (BTW, he died in March this year). Ostentatious is the scentific progress, but Miller stresses the workers efforts and import in doubling the number of transistors on a “chip” every two years. Without many dextrious, low wage women this “law” would never have occured.

    The anticipated fight between the superpowers: China vs US

    A portion of the book is dedicated to the conflict between China and the US, after the subsiding conflict between Japan and US in the (primarily) 1980’s and 1990’s. On the one hand, it’s fascinating, on the other, it’s completely terrifying. The conflicting sides compete for semiconductors, advanced semiconductors even more so, to fill their societies with computers, phones, gadgets and all the other things, but also competing for the military edge. Advanced weapons, semi-autonomous among them, are really scary, from your worst nightmare, and they’re becoming reality (I truly hope Eric Schmidt and Bob Work are right in that autonomous weapons are forbidden in every way and semi-autonomous weapons are subordinated humans).

    I’m happy to read that the swing in the US policy towards China changed parts due to Matt Pottinger. It confirms the view I hold of him being a good, knowledgable deputy national advisor. Generally I hold the view that the Trump administration was a disaster for the US (although several politically handpicked staff were talented and good), but this man was fantastic at his job. He lasted approximately 47 Scaramuccis.

    Very few companies are actually creating semiconductors, especially the advanced ones (TSMC, Samsung, UMC and GlobalFoundries), and only one create the blueprints, so to speak: ASML. This business is extremely concentrated. Drilling after oil can be done pretty much without advanced equipment, rudimentarily, but creating 14,8 billion transistors on one single chip is almost beyond conception of the mind and takes decades and billions of dollars in investment to complete, not to mention very skilled workers.

    Taiwan, together with South Korea and Japan, is at the very centre of this looming conflict. Without Taiwan, approximately 37 % of the advanced chips vanish and it would be disastrous to most of the industrial world, since these chips are part of industrial processes, military equipment (without them, no guidance), servers, and an abundance of other things.

    In Taiwan, some people argue they have a “silicon shield” protecting them from Chinese invasion. Why would China want to trigger a conflict, quickly sinking the world economy and advanced societies into a nightmare. Miller, however, argues that this shield is far from a guarantee, and I couldn’t agree more. Taiwan is perceived a province of China and too bold moves from the Taiwanese leadership and China will attack. Unfortunately, the situation is that simple.

    Superfluous summary

    Well. What can I say? This book is a must-read. If you wish to know more about semiconductors or the state of the world regarding semiconductors – read!

    Unfortunately, the book was issued when the CHIPS and Science Act was enacted and new export control measures on semiconductors were implemented, omitting these two very important steps in the conflict between China and the US. If you’re interested, listen to Alperovitch’s discussion with Miller in the aforementioned podcast.

    The single best aspect, an underestimated one, of this book’s layout is the short chapters. I cannot stress enough how much I appreciate chapters of approximately 10-15 pages each. For me, reading a book with hundreds of pages belonging to one single chapter isn’t a problem, but I find this layout so much easier, so much more appealing, to digest.

  • State of the world after one week of war in Ukraine (Revised May 5th)

    State of the world after one week of war in Ukraine (Revised May 5th)

    It’s been one week of war now. One week of immense sorrow. One week of reading more news than ever before in such a short time: Zelensky, Putin, Kiev, Kharkiv, Cherson, Territorial Defense Unit/Brigade, women signing up for frontline duty – the list in my dreams and nightmares go on and on.

    To follow the news, is to me like watching a shockwave of power and momentum in real time, the epicenter being Washington DC. From that epicenter comes an immense wave of power in the shape of diplomacy and soft power, flowing in all directions simultaneously. Many countries are caught in the flow, some resist. I’ve read news, especially after president Joe Biden’s speech to the congress, that the USA is not standing in the frontline this time, defying the prevalent thought that Americans are always at the forefront in confrontations, leading the “free world” towards a new goal. That they are weaker now. I couldn’t disagree more. Biden and Blinken (and so many others) have done a marvelous job of outing the Russian plans, playing the game of spies against spies. They remind me of president George H.W. Bush and James Baker III when they saw the Soviet Union and its’ satellite states collapse: seem unaffected outwardly while being busy and occupied with diplomacy and behind-the-scenes actions to make sure the system collapses as smoothly as possible. Biden and Blinken are using the goodwill of being right about Putin, and the badwill of Putin and his actions, to amass the strongest economic and political alliance in history. The goal is twofold.

    Firstly, the US is intent on destroying Russia as a great power once and for all by isolating them from the rest of the world as much as is possible, daring Putin to let Russia become a vassal state of China. Since China is extremely much stronger than Russia, those bilateral negotiations and relations will not be in Russia’s favour, ever. The wolf warrior diplomacy will put Putin at China’s mercy, no matter the nuclear weapons. Russia is in decline in almost all ways, whereas China is now becoming a super power stronger than the Soviet Union ever was.

    Secondly, when Russia is weakened and the debris is left in Siberia, the US will turn to China. Aligned beside them will be the European union with all its economic might, now stronger militarily than ever before, South Korea, Japan and many other countries, especially in South East Asia. The goal here is to force the Chinese to negotiate on the Western terms, to stop the wolf warrior diplomacy and make them see that a war on Taiwan is out of the question. The hegemon (the US that is) will remain in its’ place.

    That notorious Russian security meeting last week had me thinking a few things. One: Putin seemed affronted and angry. Perhaps because all his secret plans had been thwarted, that communications had been constantly intercepted and used against him by the Five Eyes. There might be leaks even. Two: Democracy in Ukraine must not last. A democratic country which succeeds where his authoritarian, semi-dictatorship country fails is never to be tolerated. Three: It seems his friends there didn’t agree with him. Perhaps they’re more well-informed about the risks they’re taking, both by attacking Ukraine and by saying no to Putin. Catch 22. But it angered him and all things considered made him make the decisions to attack.

    Perhaps there are many other reasons I/we don’t know and may never know. Still, I presume there are some strong disagreements in the Kremlin leadership.

    The response to the Russian invasion and attack has been stronger than I ever imagined. In the way of the reception of (and preparation for) refugees, which could have been a goal for Putin: let enough refugees into the EU and it might crumble, since the last refugee crisis in 2015 put the union through some serious hardships, and help right-wing extremists in France into power. In the way of swift (no pun intended) economic sanctions. In the way of military aid, like in Sweden, where the government and (now) all parties have decided to send weapons to a warzone for the first time since 1939. That says something about the threat European countries feel, disregarding all these foolish claims that Russia is threatened by every Western country, giving Russia the right to decide who should cooperate with who.

    It seems Emanuel Macron has been right all along, preaching about a stronger military force within the European Union, that the EU must be able to tackle things on its’ own. I’ve concurred before and I do it again. Thank you, Putin.

    I’ve heard politicians call for the extradiction of all Russian citizens from Sweden, which is an absurd proposal. To extradict people seeking asylum, a new life, or any other reason, for just being Russian citizens is against logic, against reason and won’t do the cause for Ukraine, for democracy any good. It’s rather to revert to the historical mistakes of old (and new): the internment of people with Japanese heritage in the US during World War II, the hatred towards Germans in the US during World War I. It smells of racism. There’s also the usual fallacy of thinking of citizens of one country being potential spies or weaknesses. As if Swedish citizens couldn’t be traitors or damage our country (the same goes for any country). The worst traitors and spies are usually found within a countries own population.

    Other very disturbing news, unfortunately not unexpected though I hoped for better: African students and migrants being treated very poorly by Ukranians and Poles. Considering how quickly and forcefully Poland organized a reception for millions of Ukrainians, and how forcefully they opposed refugees from Syria and the Middle East in 2015, I’m not surprised. Somehow, though, when you read news about all the heroic, fantastic deeds of the Ukrainians, one expects them to be saints in every way. That is never true for any people. The situation is so dire and awful, blatant racism in the form of refusing help and aid to Black people is sad, disturbing and wrong. People fleeing the war should receive help, no matter their origin or citizenship.

    People claim the Russians will win. Define win and victory, I say. Historically, the Russians haven’t fought a war without severe losses and/or humiliation in modern times. The Russo-Japanese war ended in humiliation and defeat. World War I ended in humiliation, defeat and system collapse. Russia was defeated by Poland in 1920. World War II was “won” by the death of millions of soldiers and inhabitants, in numbers perhaps more than any other nation ever. Afghanistan ended in humiliation. And so did Chechnya. The United States has the most powerful military the world has ever seen. They can deploy troops everywhere and have ousted many regimes for more than a century now, in some spectacular and extremely efficient ways. But even they have severe problems occupying countries. If the great historian Putin had read real history he would know how some of those occupations ended.

    So how can Russia possibly win? If the rest of the world lets them fight there by turning a very blind eye and by turning everything in Ukraine, the very country he was supposed to save, to dust and smithereens. By turning Ukraine into Stalingrad, which is very ironic, in a twisted, bleak way. By letting Russian men die in the hundred of thousands, and Ukrainians in the millions.

    I sincerely hope I won’t be writing any more about this war again, that it is over next week, but it seems a faint and vain hope. I would like the war to stop any minute, no more people dying, whether they be citizens in Ukranian cities, towns and villages preparing to fight and die for their freedom from Russia, or young Russian soldiers lying dead on the ground, covered by snow.