In recent weeks there’s been reports of several anti-Russian and/or Ukrainian units attacking villages around Belgorod, inside Russia, and last week Moscow was attacked by drones. The daughter of Alexander Dugin, Darya, was killed by a car bomb earlier this year, just like the military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was killed in St Petersburg. Crimea has been attacked repeatedly, like Belgorod and other parts of Russia. There’s suspicions that Ukrainians blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic sea. Several Russian leaders in occupied parts of Ukraine have been bombed or shot to death by partisans. And now the Kachovka dam.
The dam has been under Russian control, and it seems plausible Russian neglect or stupidity blew up the dam, causing severe damage to large swaths of land. But many of the latter attacks seem to be directed by Ukrainians and in some cases, as in attacks on Crimea, officially directed by the Ukrainian government and/or military. Is this a sign of a sustainable war entering Russia?
Sustainable war is a concept from the anime Ghost in the Shell: SAC_2045, where the powerful countries of the world launch a sustainable war to boost the global economy. Humans are primarily not attacked by warring states, but rather structures and equipment, by machines and mercenaries. I will alter the concept so as to incorporate the sustainability of a war, but a war that could be dangerous to humans as well.
Ukraine has proved to be a very tough opponent for Russia. The Ukrainians have been able to kill and injure hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers. They’ve also proved to be adept at using the Russian propaganda toolkit against the Russians themselves. First and foremost by gathering support of the most powerful country on the planet and the two strongest economic powers on the planet, as well as gaining support from South Korea and Japan. Finland and Sweden have abandoned neutrality. Again and again the Ukrainians have taunted and ridiculed the Russians in social media, interviews and press conferences. And now we’ve entered new territory in two ways.
Firstly, the Ukrainians are using the Russian toolkit to spread fear and anxiety in parts of Russian society. They neither confirm nor deny attacks or events about to happen. No one is to be fully sure as to what’s really happening. Not even the Western countries, who in lack of evidence (and with evidence) will claim no damage is done and the Ukrainians have the right to defend themselves. This is the Russian playbook, turned against themselves repeatedly.
Second, people are killed far from the border and the “special military operation”, Moscow itself is attacked and people with common sense will notice how the Russian military and leadership is unable to defend even the Kremlin, while their leader is hiding in a secret train. The New York Times reported on the city of Shebekino, a city in the vicinity of Belgorod with 40.000 inhabitants, that the Ukrainians has attacked and shelled. Virtually all people have fled and large parts of the city center have been destroyed by Ukraine. The Russians are incapable of defending the bordering regions.
This is a very potent and dangerous combination: attack your enemy inside his own country, while claiming you didn’t do it. Or maybe you did. Use the enemies own propaganda toolkit and spread mistrust, anxiety and fear, again and again. Eventually, who are people to trust? Are they to trust anyone? Of course, the Russian people has lived under dictatorship, hardship and insecurity before. Propaganda and lies create apathy. Still, has the Russian leadership anything to live for if it cannot guarantee security? Even Stalin remained in Moscow when the Germans came and some citizens felt relief that he actually stayed, although he was feared and hated. But a leader who can’t even protect Moscow from stealthy, skilled Ukrainians, who is he?
It might be that Vladimir Putin opened the Pandora’s Box with this war: a sustainable war he cannot end and cannot limit. How is he supposed to prevent the Ukrainians from fomenting rebellion in regions of Russia? How is he supposed to prevent Ukrainian attacks in such a large country, that even now cannot protect itself? The absolute majority of the Russian army was positioned inside Ukraine in March of 2022. The absolute majority of that army/military force is either dead or wounded now. Even with another round of mobilization, Putin cannot achieve security inside Russia, the Ukrainians will see to that. And using propaganda against the Russian population, who will they turn to? If this war continues for another year or couple of years, it might be that there’s a sustainable war raging inside Russia, with Ukrainian, Chechen, Georgian, Dagestan (to name a few) units in many more parts of Russia than now. Then, Putin can neither stop nor limit the war. It will continue, with bombings, assassinations, damage to infrastructure, levelled cities and villages, and no one knows when it will stop or when.